Monday, September 5, 2011

The "Hidden Primary" for the GOP Nomination in 2012

This article from Politico.com describes the competition between Mitt Romney and Rick Perry for endorsements and contributions from Republican elites across the country. The process of courting the relatively small number of wealthy and influential activists within each major party is part of a process that is sometimes called a "hidden primary." Most of the delegates who will ultimately select a party's nominee for president are chosen through competitive primaries and caucuses, which any qualifying candidate could theoretically win. Yet, the ability to raise sufficient funds to run a professional campaign and to attract the free publicity that comes from being taken as a serious contender by traditional media outlets is closely related to the support candidates gather from elected official, party leaders, and wealthy donors. As such, competition for the support of party elites among candidates vying for high office can be intense.

Candidates who fail to attract the support of these elites often experience difficulty raising sufficient funding for an extended election campaign or receiving positive attention from the news media. The presidential campaign of Rep. Ron Paul is, perhaps, indicative of the importance of elite support. Despite Rep. Paul's enthusiastic base of political support among libertarian-leaning Republicans within a large and competitive field for the Republican presidential nomination, his alienation from most Republican Party elites undermines his campaign's ability raise the large contributions and attract the positive media attention that would help him attract enough support among Republican voters to win the nomination. The Daily Show makes light of Rep. Paul's nearly complete absence from media discussions of the results of the Ames Straw Poll, in which he finished second, but the reality of the situation is quite serious. Despite the opening the presidential election process that accompanied the development of the primary system in the second half of the twentieth century, party insiders continue to play a pivotal role in the nomination of major party candidates for the presidency.

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Georgetown University political science professor Hans Noel discusses the hidden or invisible primary in an interview here.